Forecasters Anticipate an Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

Summer travel may face significant interruptions, including delays, cancellations, and even effects on vacation rentals and potential beach closures.

Forecasting an unprecedented season, the team at Colorado State University anticipates 23 named storms, with 11 predicted to escalate into hurricanes, including five that may achieve major hurricane status. This marks the highest forecast for named storms from the university's researchers to date.

Continued warm water temperature anomalies in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are expected, a key factor in tropical cyclone development, according to the CSU team. They explain that unusually warm waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic during spring can lead to a reduced subtropical high and weaker tropical Atlantic winds. This is likely to sustain higher-than-average sea temperatures in the tropical Atlantic through the 2024 season's peak, favoring an above-average hurricane season due to the reliance of hurricanes on warm ocean waters for energy.

Moreover, the probability of named storms making landfall is predicted to be higher than in typical seasons.

"We're about two months away from the season's start and four from its peak intensity, and conditions could still shift," Klotzbach notes. "For example, despite a storm-free August in 2022, the season ended with eight hurricanes, picking up significantly later in the year. This late activity could be attributed to cooler subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to more mid-latitude fronts and dry air, which suppressed early August's storm development."